Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1144 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 pips but didn't quite reach the target level. Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a half-percentage point pleased euro buyers, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech was fairly restrained regarding future monetary policy, negating the pair's upward potential.

Today, we await data on the current account balance from the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank's monthly report. ECB representatives, including Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel and Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel, will also give speeches. It's unlikely that they will say anything new, so the chances of the euro recovering today are quite low. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios Nos. 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the area around 1.1144 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1185. At the 1.1185 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in anticipation of a 30-35 pip movement opposite from the entry point. It's possible to expect some upward movement in the euro in the first half of the day, but the upward potential will be limited. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting its upward movement.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1113 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. The expected rise would be toward the opposite levels of 1.1144 and 1.1185.

Sell Signal

Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1113 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1071 level, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 pip movement in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today if it fails to break above the daily high and there is weak Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1144 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. The expected decline would be toward the opposite levels of 1.1113 and 1.1071.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.