The new 2016 year is bringing both positive and negative changes to global economies. Many of them could face a risk of recession. Analysts share the viewpoint that Russia’s economy is in extremely dire straits. The economy is expected to contract 0.5%.
Apart from Russia, among the most troubled economies are Venezuela (-3.3%), Brazil (-2.5%), Greece (-1.8%), and Ecuador (-0.5%). Besides, the ten weakest economies include Argentina which has been showing zero expansion as well as Japan, Finland, Croatia, and Switzerland, which are likely to reveal minor economic growth.
According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, here are the bottom 10 economies for this year (from the most to less problematic): 1. Venezuela 6. Argentina 2. Brazil 7. Japan 3. Greece 8. Finland 4. Russia 9. Croatia 5. Ecuador 10. Switzerland
In addition, Bloomberg analysts assessed that 93 global economies are running a risk of GDP contraction. In this context, Russia’s economy is also the most troubled. There is 65% chance that it will fail to get out of recession this year. The chance that Brazil’s GDP will stay on the negative territory is 75%.
However, Russia and Ukraine will be able to curb the recession probability in the first half of the year. Economists rate Ukraine’s chance of recession over the next 12 months at 60%, the third-highest tied with Argentina. Among the nations with a 50-50 chance of two quarters of contraction is Taiwan. On the photo, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko.
Experts think the outlook is dire for most of Latin American countries. Crisis-stricken Venezuela is looking at a third straight year of negative GDP. Brazil's 2016 GDP forecast combined with last year's drop puts the country in its deepest recession since at least 1901.
Among European countries, Finland and Switzerland also made the list of 10 worst performers for 2016, their GDP are expected to grow 1% and 1.2% respectively. Finland is suffering from its geographic proximity and economic reliance to Russia while Switzerland is still reeling from a surprise central bank decision to drop its currency cap, which crippled exports and tourism.
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