Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euro

The price touched 1.1136 as the MACD indicator started to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points before the movement stalled. European statistics from the ZEW institute were quite disappointing, as expected, limiting the euro's upward potential in the first half of the day. Now, we are waiting for a spike in volatility following the release of U.S. statistics, which hold much more interest for the dollar. A weak U.S. retail sales report for August would pressure dollar buyers, causing another rally in EUR/USD. Similar reactions can be expected from the industrial production, manufacturing output, capacity utilization, and NAHB housing market index data. In the case of strong statistics, pressure on the euro will increase, leading to a larger downward correction in the pair. For my intraday strategy, I will trade according to scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.1144 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1178 level. At 1.1178, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro today can be expected within the framework of the upward trend, but without weak U.S. statistics, this is unlikely. Note: Before entering a buy trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1122 twice when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the 1.1144 and 1.1178 levels is expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1122 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1089 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25 point movement from the level). If there is weak activity near the daily high, the pair will likely come under renewed pressure. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1144 twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the 1.1122 and 1.1089 levels is expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones for guidance.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make careful decisions when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to avoid entering the market to prevent exposure to sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I have outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based solely on market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.